BIA Advocate

Ken Danter and Mike Martin discuss the economic forecast for 2010.

BIA Economic Forecast 2010 from Bia Advocate on Vimeo.

While we have seen some encouraging numbers regarding the local housing market, we have a long way to go. The encouragement comes from the fact that it only took the City of Columbus 7 months to reach the 2008 single-family permit number.

The figures are modest by historical standards (630 permits so far in 2009, compared to 602 for all of 2008); however, we will take any good news data that we can get.  Other communities in central Ohio are also reporting increases in permits from last year.  Overall, we have seen a 6% increase in permit activity through June over last year.

NAHB is working to extend the housing tax incentive program and other initiatives to support the housing market.  The first-time home buyer tax credit expires on December 1, 2009.  In order to continue to stimulate housing and improve the overall economy, more time is needed.

NAHB needs your help by contacting your Congressional representative.  By extending the tax credit, Congress would spur 383,000 additional home sales, including 80,000 housing starts down the road.  This stimulus will create nearly 350,000 jobs over the coming year.

Call your members of Congress today toll-free at 866-924-6242 and tell them to extend the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit through November 30, 2010 and make it available to all home buyers.   You can also visit www.revivehousingnow.com for more information.

NAHB is also urging lawmakers to help resolve the credit crunch and appraisal problems that are hampering a recovery and to support expansion of net operating loss carryback provisions in the tax code to help prevent further layoffs.

Another very important issue deals with changes made by FHA that impact condominium purchasers.  While there are a number of changes that impact condominiums, the biggest is the provision that limits FHA loans to 30% of the units in a project.  This provision is set to take effect on October 1, 2009.  NAHB is working with the FHA commissioner to get this limit repealed.

We continue to work on many issues locally and you are now receiving bi-weekly updates from me on our progress.  If you have questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

In one of my first posts, I discussed how the Delaware County Commissioners were looking for an extremely needed Economic Development Director. Today, I want to applaud the Commissioners for persevering at landing Gus Comstock, former Economic Development Director for the City of Delaware, for the position.

This position is valuable to all in Central Ohio and the fact that it had been vacant for 18 months was unacceptable. Good for the new commissioners to remain focused on solving this immediate challenge.  Here’s a recap of the story from This Week news.

Development post County ups ante to secure Comstock
Saturday,  April 4, 2009 7:03 PM
By CANDACE PRESTON-COY
ThisWeek Staff Writer
Delaware city development director Gus Comstock — who last week turned down the job of Delaware County development director at $87,000 a year — will take it at $91,000.
County commissioners Tommy Thompson and Todd Hanks on March 30 voted to increase Comstock’s pay offer to $91,000.
Comstock is too valuable to the future of Delaware County to let a few thousand dollars keep him from accepting the county’s economic development coordinator position, Thompson said.
On his application for the county position, Comstock asked for a salary of $92,000. His base salary as Delaware development director is $84,000 a year.
Comstock said the county job is a “tremendous opportunity” and he looks forward to playing a broader role in county development.
Commission vice president Ken O’Brien voted against the new offer, saying it was not fair to offer Comstock more money, when the commissioners are asking others to cut their budgets.
“I want to know where the money will come from to pay him,” O’Brien said. “We have a (budget) shortfall and I hate to take it from other people who have been effective for the city.”
Thompson said he understands O’Brien’s concerns but the county stands to lose more money than the extra $4,000 in salary through lost economic development opportunities.
Comstock can hit the ground running, he said, because he already knows who is interested in locating to the county and who could be persuaded to locate here.
Hanks said the immediate answer about where the money will come from is out of the $313,000 in carryover funds the county expects to have at the end of 2009.
That amount represents less than 1 percent of the county’s annual budget, O’Brien said, when county policy states they should have a 20 percent carryover to protect the county’s bond rating. “I think Mr. Comstock is a highly qualified individual but we’re robbing Peter to pay Paul.”
“I am real concerned that for 18 months we have not had an economic coordinator. … We have also not spent money for a 911 director,” Thompson said.
“If we continue to do this with these critical positions, we will find ourselves behind the 8 ball and we’ll pay for it for the next 10 years,” he said.
“We are at the cusp when this thing (economic development in the county) breaks open. … We need to have someone in place who understands the county,” Thompson said.
After the vote O’Brien said he will “do all I can to welcome Mr. Comstock. … There are a great many things that can be accomplished in this county. I look forward to working with Mr. Comstock.”

In case you missed the new Census Bureau announcement that was just released –Central Ohio has maintained a key element of a healthy housing market — a growing population.

While other factors are conspiring to make this the most challenging time of our generation, we should feel positive about the fact that once economic and lending environments improve, the six county region in Central Ohio has maintained some population growth.

The government data indicate the population of the six-county Columbus metropolitan area grew 1.1 percent to 1,773,120 residents during the 12 months ended July 1, 2008.

The other important piece of long-term news was the report by the Chamber of Commerce that Site Selection Magazine has the Columbus metropolitan area in the top 10 in 2008 in the nation for location of new and expanding corporations.   Click here for the Chamber’s release.   For the full listing from Site Selection, visit: www.siteselection.com.

Today we had a terrific turnout at the Economic Forecast where Ken Danter from the Danter Company and Bill Lafayette from the Columbus Chamber presented some thought-provoking analysis to our members and about 50 public officials.

In this video, we asked Ken to summarize his findings and afterwards, we gathered feedback from attendees.

BIA Economic Forecast from Bia Advocate on Vimeo.

This year’s BIA Economic Forecast breakfast is on Friday, February 27 at the Bridgewater Conference Center in Powell. We have invited public officials from around central Ohio to attend and 50 are currently planning to attend.

This is a great opportunity to meet and share your opinion about the housing market with them while learning about some key economic news for our area.  To register, go to http://www.biahomebuilders.com/bia-events.

The Chamber of Commerce released its Blue Chip forecast yesterday, you can download it here.

On February 27 Bill Lafayette from the Chamber has agreed to come speak at our BIA Economic Forecast where our annual Danter report will also be released. Make sure to mark your calendars.